Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae3…93c3 sports 847 markets active 14d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$134 (+2%) realized +$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%591W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day295.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,992
7 days−$1,992
14 days−$1,997
30 days−$1,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$267
other 21% +$118
crypto 1% −$61
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1189 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 47% -26.3%
≤90d 1189 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 47% -26.3%
all 1189 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 47% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 47% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 36% -33.4%
15% -44.3% 20% -39.8%
20% -49.8% 11% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses591 / 598
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1189 / 847
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day295.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1189 Trades
no open positions (485 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Greet Minnen vs Alina Charaeva Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Cholet Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Molde FK (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Como 1907 leading at halftime? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Johannus Monday Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-23? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-05-31? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $8 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $8 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 16d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 83¢ $1 16d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 82¢ $1 16d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 66¢ $1 16d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 60¢ $1 16d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 16d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $1 16d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 66¢ $1 16d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 67¢ $1 16d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 16d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $2 16d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 80¢ $2 16d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $2 16d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 72¢ $2 16d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $2 16d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $2 16d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 70¢ $2 16d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 73¢ $2 16d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $2 16d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $2 16d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $2 16d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $2 16d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 81¢ $3 16d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) SELL Qatar 85¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records