Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4adf…26fe
crypto · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)32 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 7 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Yes 51¢ 88¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$3
sports 9% −$1
other 6% −$3
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 34% -28.3%
≤30d 32 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 34% -28.3%
≤90d 32 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 34% -28.3%
all 32 -23.9% -31.2% 50% 34% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 34% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 31% -35.1%
15% -43.8% 25% -41.4%
20% -49.3% 22% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.70 · official $14.70 (match) · 80 history records