Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4ade…fb15 sports 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,699 (+9%) realized +$1,703 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%82W / 90L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days−$153
14 days+$326
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,351
other 2% −$53
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +84.0% +66.5% 44% 44% -23.6%
≤30d 74 +32.8% +20.1% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 172 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 47% -2.8%
all 172 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 47% -2.8%
10% -10.4% 45% -12.1%
15% -19.0% 41% -20.6%
20% -27.0% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$75 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$1,703
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses82 / 90
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage85d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 54¢ 55¢ $189 $191 +$2 (+1%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Sashi Esport 24¢ 22¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $105 +$105 +100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $105 −$103 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $504 +$179 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $303 +$207 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $188 +$74 +40%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $238 −$234 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $222 +$118 +53%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $64 +$63 +98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $82 +$84 +103%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $133 −$131 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $79 +$65 +83%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $167 −$164 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $124 −$122 -98%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $120 −$118 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $47 +$51 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $241 −$239 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $170 −$167 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $90 −$88 -98%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $179 +$160 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$112 +242%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$192 +474%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $89 +$221 +250%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $31 +$35 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $114 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $273 +$126 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $40 +$133 +333%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $127 +$64 +50%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $200 +$68 +34%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $119 +$158 +133%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $55 +$24 +44%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $61 −$27 -44%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $118 +$204 +173%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 08 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs MGLBROS - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $88 +$62 +70%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $87 −$86 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $115 +$93 +81%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 06 $78 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $251 +$275 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 24¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $192 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 28¢ $2 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 28¢ $66 11h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $19 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $25 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $24 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $24 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY Walczaki 50¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 43¢ $105 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $683 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $209 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $8 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $24 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $20 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $110 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $14 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $3 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $27 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $27 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $51 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $506 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $303 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $188 33h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 34¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.66 · official $239.35 (match) · 485 history records