Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4add…e8bc crypto 1034 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (231 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$571 (-4%) realized −$571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%602W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day231.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$613
14 days−$994
30 days−$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$896
sports 3% −$59
other 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (231 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 546 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 26% -19.9%
≤30d 1040 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 30% -16.6%
≤90d 1040 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 30% -16.6%
all 1040 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 30% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover231.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 30% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 21% -24.6%
15% -31.0% 18% -31.8%
20% -37.7% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses602 / 438
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1040 / 1034
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day231.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1040 Trades
no open positions (193 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records