Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4add…8cdf world 161 markets active 2d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-14%) realized −$104 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%58W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days+$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$22
crypto 29% −$93
other 22% +$6
finance 7% −$1
sports 5% +$7
politics 3% $0
tech 2% +$2
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.7% -24.7% 62% 46% -13.0%
≤30d 41 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 59% -2.5%
≤90d 114 -20.6% -28.2% 51% 45% -30.5%
all 114 -20.6% -28.2% 51% 45% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 45% -30.5%
10% -35.0% 32% -37.2%
15% -41.3% 20% -43.2%
20% -47.1% 11% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions47
Markets (closed)114 / 161
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 87¢ 93¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 77¢ 89¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 68¢ 85¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 36¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 54¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 78¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 76¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 74¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 61¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $8 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 07 $3 $0 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 07 $7 +$4 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 07 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $11 −$1 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 21 $2 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 21 $4 +$1 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $1 −$1 -88%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia May 16 $3 $0 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 16 $1 $0 -37%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 91¢ $3 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu SELL Yes 75¢ $1 3d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 75¢ $1 3d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 75¢ $1 3d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 74¢ $2 3d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 57¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $1 3d
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalu BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 4d
Megaquake by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 93¢ $2 4d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.16 · official $236.08 (match) · 477 history records