Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4adc…9bf9 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$170 (-0%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%93W / 10L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$637per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$146
economics 25% +$150
politics 21% +$7
other 6% +$9
world 4% −$217
sports 1% +$26
finance 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 19 -19.7% -27.3% 79% 0% -19.5%
all 103 -1.9% -11.2% 90% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$53 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses93 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage240d
Avg bet$637
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $118 +$2 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 03 $100 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 21 $110 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 13 $106 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 08 $110 $0 +0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 07 $110 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 30 $110 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$1 +0%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 22 $108 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $240 −$240 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $216 +$4 +2%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 29 $240 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 24 $202 +$10 +5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 21 $109 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 21 $101 +$12 +12%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $209 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 14 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? Mar 13 $211 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 10 $198 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 17? Feb 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 17 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 11? Feb 15 $200 $0 +0%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 7? Feb 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 07 $200 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 05 $200 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 03 $1 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $1 $0 +37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $2 $0 +5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 03 $150 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $13,936 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $118 20d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $100 29d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual BUY JD Gaming 52¢ $1 34d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $106 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 47d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 79¢ $1 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $110 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 55d
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 95¢ $1 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $240 79d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $216 87d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $240 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $202 94d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 89¢ $101 100d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $109 100d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 99¢ $209 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? BUY No 100¢ $204 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 105d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 99¢ $198 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.58 · official $119.58 (match) · 386 history records