Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4ad9…f2d6
sports · 126 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$509 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$608 · open −$99
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1
Realized+$608
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses99 / 26
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$405
14 days+$572
30 days+$608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 87¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner HANJIN BRION 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 72¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner EDward Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 66¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs RAYN Clocks - Game 1 Winner DetonatioN FocusMe Academy 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner T1 69¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 67¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner paiN 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Heroic 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner ThunderTalk Gaming 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner BNK FearX Youth 57¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 48¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Ninjas in Pyjamas 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sharks 64¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $30 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$2 +5%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $50 +$12 +23%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $50 −$16 -31%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $201 +$127 +63%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $50 +$7 +15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 +$2 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $40 +$4 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$35 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$51 +51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $101 +$72 +71%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $100 +$15 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $101 +$38 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$6 +48%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$8 +27%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $60 +$11 +18%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $14 +$2 +13%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$13 +41%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $40 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $71 +$18 +26%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 +$17 +56%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $40 +$8 +20%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $50 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $30 +$8 +26%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $50 +$7 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$20 +19%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $61 +$27 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$509
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $101 29m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $126 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 69¢ $20 16h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win BUY Top Esports Challenger 95¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $44 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 90¢ $40 24h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $112 25h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $100 25h
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 87¢ $60 26h
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $32 27h
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 95¢ $30 27h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner SELL Misa Esports 99¢ $62 41h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 80¢ $50 42h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner SELL Saigon Dino 59¢ $35 2d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W SELL CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 99¢ $328 2d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 69¢ $101 2d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 53¢ $100 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Dino 84¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 93¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 86¢ $50 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $53 2d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $43 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 94¢ $50 3d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $40 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $44 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $40 3d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $136 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +10.2% -0.3% 88% 68% +7.3%
≤30d 125 +4.4% -5.5% 79% 71% +2.0%
≤90d 125 +4.4% -5.5% 79% 71% +2.0%
all 125 +4.4% -5.5% 79% 71% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 71% +2.0%
10% -14.6% 50% -7.8%
15% -22.8% 27% -16.7%
20% -30.4% 15% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.63 (match) · 257 history records