Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4A 0x4ad8…bf4c other 53 markets active 13h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$12
14 days+$22
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$8
sports 12% −$4
crypto 11% −$2
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +39.6% +26.3% 67% 67% +20.0%
≤30d 47 +11.7% +1.1% 53% 53% -4.2%
≤90d 47 +11.7% +1.1% 53% 53% -4.2%
all 49 +10.9% +0.4% 53% 53% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 53% -9.1%
10% -9.2% 53% -17.8%
15% -18.0% 47% -25.7%
20% -26.0% 39% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage264d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $6 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 09 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 24 $13 −$6 -43%
XRP Up or Down - October 13, 11PM ET Oct 17 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.77 (match) · 99 history records