Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4ad4…1704 other 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,147 (+2%) realized +$3,062 · open +$85
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate75%212W / 70L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$3,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$2,155
other 30% +$1,395
politics 9% +$115
crypto 2% +$130
world 0% −$494
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 -3.5% -12.7% 81% 15% -9.4%
≤90d 187 -1.7% -11.0% 82% 11% -8.0%
all 282 -7.4% -16.2% 75% 15% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 15% -8.0%
10% -24.2% 7% -16.8%
15% -31.6% 5% -24.8%
20% -38.3% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$658) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$54 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$3,245
Realized+$3,062
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses212 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions39
Markets (closed)282 / 321
History coverage602d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $657 $661 +$4 (+1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $610 $607 −$3 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $356 $358 +$2 (+1%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $344 $314 −$30 (-9%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $247 $259 +$11 (+5%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 91¢ $166 $185 +$19 (+12%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 48¢ 82¢ $60 $102 +$42 (+71%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $63 $92 +$29 (+45%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 70¢ 84¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $52 $84 +$32 (+61%)
SlingshotDAO FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 82¢ 89¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+8%)
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 66¢ 93¢ $44 $62 +$18 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $59 $42 −$17 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-10%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 75¢ 90¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
Printr FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 92¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $20 +$3 (+16%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Yo FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 96¢ 71¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-26%)
Yo FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 96¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Over 8 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100? No 50¢ 39¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $15 −$7 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 27 $705 +$4 +1%
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 27 $250 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $2,089 +$7 +0%
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 27 $795 +$1 +0%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 27 $3,025 +$11 +0%
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 27 $109 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $12,500 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $93 +$7 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $255 −$255 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $149 +$1 +0%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $1,383 +$4 +0%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $290 +$1 +0%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $29 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,969 +$126 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +117%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $1,145 +$46 +4%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $198 $0 +0%
Will Sai Sudharsan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $868 +$1 +0%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $718 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $6,474 +$232 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $45 +$5 +12%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $4,006 +$132 +3%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $27 +$26 +96%
XMAQUINA FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 28 $60 +$4 +6%
XMAQUINA FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 28 $48 +$2 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $230 +$52 +23%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 28 $16 +$9 +54%
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 28 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Heinrich Klaasen win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will Abhishek Sharma win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 28 $256 $0 +0%
Will Ishan Kishan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 28 $256 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,882 +$147 +8%
Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2027? May 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 26 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Citrea launch a token by March 31, 2027? May 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +3%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $198 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $1,256 +$14 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $2,465 +$136 +6%
Will the result be Other in the Phoenix trading challenge? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will @drews888 win the Phoenix trading competition? May 26 $541 +$4 +1%
Will @vibhu win the Phoenix trading competition? May 26 $573 +$1 +0%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026? May 25 $160 +$10 +6%
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026? May 25 $202 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will K L Rahul win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 24 $568 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY No $3 58m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 59m
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $193 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,831 15h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $598 15h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $466 24h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $357 24h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $612 24h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,733 25h
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $298 42h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 42h
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $208 42h
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $199 42h
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $795 42h
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $250 42h
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $109 42h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $596 42h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $156 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,244.90 · official $3,245.38 (match) · 1768 history records