Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4ad0…d8e4
sports · 379 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$42 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses239 / 132
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions8
Markets (closed)371 / 379
History coverage93d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 8 History 371 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$19
14 days+$22
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 19¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+426%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 43¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+130%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 63¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$4 +176%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +240%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$4 +176%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +140%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$15
other 5% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $1 9m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 80¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 64¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 36¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 35¢ $1 3h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $1 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $1 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 5h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 30¢ $1 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $1 5h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 93¢ $1 5h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 29¢ $1 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $1 7h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $1 7h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +19.5% +8.1% 71% 63% +9.9%
≤30d 142 +9.2% -1.2% 69% 61% +1.3%
≤90d 371 +2.6% -7.1% 64% 53% -11.4%
all 371 +2.6% -7.1% 64% 53% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 53% -11.4%
10% -16.0% 44% -19.9%
15% -24.1% 37% -27.6%
20% -31.6% 26% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.60 · official $16.60 (match) · 1027 history records