Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4acd…39ea crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+0%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%24W / 3L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,228per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$88
economics 26% −$12
other 7% +$33
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 82% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 82% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 88% 0% -9.3%
all 27 -2.0% -11.4% 89% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.31 per $1 lost it wins $7.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$2,701
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses24 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage191d
Avg bet$1,228
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $2,691 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $2,674 +$28 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 26? Jun 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M Jun 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 28 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2AM ET Jun 28 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8PM ET Jun 28 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET Jun 28 $396 +$4 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,406 +$33 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $8,577 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 25 $8,602 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on Apri May 25 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 25 $4 $0 +6%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 21 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple Mar 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Feb 06 $1 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $3 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 06 $4 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $7,482 +$32 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 26 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $449 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $573 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $997 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $498 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,700.51 · official $2,700.51 (match) · 116 history records