Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4acb…74fc sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,357 (-37%) realized −$1,352 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$401
7 days−$1,366
14 days−$1,364
30 days−$1,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$947
world 8% −$277
other 6% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -39.1% -44.9% 38% 38% -46.3%
≤30d 38 -35.9% -42.0% 39% 39% -46.3%
≤90d 38 -35.9% -42.0% 39% 39% -46.3%
all 38 -35.9% -42.0% 39% 39% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 39% -46.3%
10% -47.5% 37% -51.4%
15% -52.6% 32% -56.1%
20% -57.3% 26% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$91 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage8d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 23¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-4%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $133 +$55 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $63 +$37 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $283 −$277 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$198 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $271 −$268 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $121 +$63 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $89 −$88 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $157 +$78 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 +$9 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$64 +104%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $248 +$141 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $246 −$245 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $135 −$133 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$3 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$37 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $166 +$45 +27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $33 +$25 +74%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $124 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $22 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $68 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $27 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $9 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $133 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $102 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $100 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $283 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $271 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $23 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $190 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $121 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $89 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $33 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $56 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $157 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $61 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.50 · official $270.12 (match) · 60 history records