Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4aca…6977
weather · 21 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$28 +66%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)5 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 15 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+192%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+166%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? No 61¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 37¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 34¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$23 +1094%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +142%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 78% +$27
sports 14% $0
other 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 9h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $3 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $1 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $1 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 8¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 11h
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+216.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +249.7% +216.4% 60% 60% +350.9%
≤30d 5 +249.7% +216.4% 60% 60% +350.9%
≤90d 5 +249.7% +216.4% 60% 60% +350.9%
all 5 +249.7% +216.4% 60% 60% +350.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +216.4% 60% +350.9%
10% ← realistic here +186.1% 60% +307.7%
15% +158.5% 60% +268.3%
20% +133.1% 60% +232.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.48 · official $35.48 (match) · 29 history records