Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aca…34fc other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 23% −$22
politics 8% −$6
culture 8% −$10
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 164 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage137d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $412 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $501 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $428 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $505 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $709 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $323 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $257 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $404 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $414 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $447 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $787 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $596 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $375 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $431 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 16m
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $56 10h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 18h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 20h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 26h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 28h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 37h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 39h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 40h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 42h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 43h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1429 history records