Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ac6…a8ce sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,274 (-36%) realized −$4,363 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$255est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$362
14 days+$107
30 days−$3,969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$4,546
other 12% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.2% -39.5% 29% 21% -29.5%
≤30d 27 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 30% -50.8%
≤90d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 30% -47.1%
all 33 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 30% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 30% -47.1%
10% -40.7% 27% -52.1%
15% -46.4% 27% -56.8%
20% -51.7% 24% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$286 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$671
Realized−$4,363
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$255
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage38d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $113 $190 +$76 (+67%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 57¢ 56¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $148 +$71 +48%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $57 −$19 -33%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $51 −$13 -26%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $237 −$110 -47%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $289 −$55 -19%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $171 −$116 -68%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $104 −$102 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $172 +$106 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 −$41 -77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$166 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $300 +$302 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $359 −$355 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $71 −$70 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $166 −$94 -56%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $200 −$186 -93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $483 +$449 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $246 +$220 +89%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $906 −$893 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $4,574 −$3,012 -66%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $203 +$161 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $198 −$195 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $313 −$308 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 20 $96 −$95 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $1,050 +$187 +18%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $235 −$229 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $70 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $37 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 34¢ $38 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $51 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $88 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $126 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 44¢ $234 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $127 30h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $137 31h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 12¢ $3 32h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $15 33h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 58¢ $61 33h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $56 33h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 23¢ $51 33h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $15 34h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $24 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.94 · official $670.95 (match) · 96 history records