Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4A 0x4ac5…1519 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$316per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+2.4%	-7.4%	100%	0%	-7.4%
≤30d	3	+1.2%	-8.4%	67%	0%	-8.5%
≤90d	3	+1.2%	-8.4%	67%	0%	-8.5%
all	3	+1.2%	-8.4%	67%	0%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	0%	-8.5%
10%	-17.2%	0%	-17.3%
15%	-25.2%	0%	-25.2%
20%	-32.5%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$334

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage11d

Avg bet$316

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	$332	$334	+$2 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026	Jun 22	$325	+$8	+2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 11	$294	+$17	+6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Jun 11	$315	−$14	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$332	1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026	SELL No	96¢	$332	1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026	BUY No	93¢	$325	2h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa?	BUY No	94¢	$294	11d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	SELL No	88¢	$301	11d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	BUY No	92¢	$315	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.11 · official $334.11 (match) · 7 history records