Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ac1…3201 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-8%) realized −$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$55
sports 14% −$25
other 14% +$1
world 7% −$28
politics 6% +$1
culture 1% −$4
weather 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 39% -21.3%
≤30d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 39% -21.3%
≤90d 50 -23.6% -30.9% 44% 34% -28.8%
all 50 -23.6% -30.9% 44% 34% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 34% -28.8%
10% -37.5% 26% -35.6%
15% -43.5% 18% -41.8%
20% -49.1% 16% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4 $0 -10%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $3 +$2 +69%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $34 −$28 -82%
Will Trump post "Trust Trump" or "Trust in Trump" on Truth Social this May 02 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 30 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 30 $3 $0 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -99%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 28 $3 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $3 −$2 -74%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 28 $2 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Exort Series Playoffs Apr 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $2 +$1 +69%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? Apr 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A Apr 25 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $8 +$2 +33%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $9 −$7 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 26? Apr 25 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 26? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -30%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Pla Apr 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summ Apr 25 $2 $0 +14%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $2 $0 +17%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 10h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 36h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 36h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $10 36h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 36h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 32d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 40d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 48d
Will Trump post "Trust Trump" or "Trust in Trump" on Truth Social this SELL Yes 2¢ $0 52d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.42 · official $50.42 (match) · 105 history records