Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

4A 0x4abf…a404 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized +$27 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip

Net edge+63%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+69.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+87.4%	+69.6%	50%	50%	+3.4%
≤30d	2	+87.4%	+69.6%	50%	50%	+3.4%
≤90d	2	+87.4%	+69.6%	50%	50%	+3.4%
all	2	+87.4%	+69.6%	50%	50%	+3.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+69.6%	50%	+3.4%
10%	+53.3%	50%	-6.5%
15%	+38.5%	50%	-15.6%
20%	+24.9%	50%	-23.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +87% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$96 vs −$79 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$117

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$115	$105	−$10 (-8%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$12	$12	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$35	+$96	+275%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$81	−$79	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$12	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	6¢	$118	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$81	27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$35	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.97 · official $116.97 (match) · 5 history records