Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4abe…7a64 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,487 (-8%) realized −$1,421 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$68
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 30% −$831
other 27% +$274
sports 11% −$940
world 11% −$151
crypto 11% +$121
tech 6% +$51
politics 5% +$55
finance 0% −$57
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +22.4% +10.8% 75% 75% +0.0%
≤90d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 56% 39% -17.2%
all 45 -16.3% -24.3% 67% 18% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 18% -16.4%
10% -31.5% 16% -24.4%
15% -38.1% 13% -31.7%
20% -44.2% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$927) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$174 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,421
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage233d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 51¢ $61 $4 −$57 (-94%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 71¢ 20¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $82 +$68 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $67 +$38 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $93 +$46 +50%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $17 +$4 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $103 +$108 +105%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $73 −$72 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $78 −$77 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $109 −$107 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 25 $5 +$3 +70%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $104 +$171 +165%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $228 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,192 +$29 +2%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 24 $16 +$1 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 19 $177 +$18 +10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 19 $233 +$24 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $775 +$9 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 10 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 10 $1,365 +$80 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 06 $1,339 +$41 +3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $1,364 −$25 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,291 +$72 +6%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 15 $1,214 +$77 +6%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 06 $1,084 +$51 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $11 −$11 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1,109 +$71 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 04 $1,003 +$105 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k November 3-9? Nov 20 $988 +$15 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $927 +$61 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 02 $24 $0 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $658 −$658 -100%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $52 +$1 +2%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 01 $572 +$5 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $64 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $105 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $350 +$51 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $329 +$21 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $952 −$952 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $79 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $82 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 10d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $67 23d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $93 23d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $116 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $3 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $22 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $4 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $24 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $9 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $1 36d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $12 36d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 48¢ $103 42d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $73 48d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 59¢ $78 48d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 42¢ $109 54d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Rei Sakamoto 59¢ $5 59d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $105 63d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Magic 56¢ $68 68d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Magic 56¢ $63 68d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY No 37¢ $104 73d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $228 85d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Houston Cougars 60¢ $13 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $224 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $1,192 90d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 90d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 93¢ $16 90d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $11 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.75 · official $83.76 (match) · 184 history records