Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

4A 0x4aba…21c6 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$28 (+5%) realized +$28 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate88%14W / 2L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day67.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)+2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+13.0%	+2.2%	88%	69%	+0.5%
≤30d	16	+13.0%	+2.2%	88%	69%	+0.5%
≤90d	16	+13.0%	+2.2%	88%	69%	+0.5%
all	16	+13.0%	+2.2%	88%	69%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover67.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+2.2%	69%	+0.5%
10% ← realistic here	-7.6%	31%	-9.1%
15%	-16.5%	12%	-17.9%
20%	-24.7%	6%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses14 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day67.0

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 26	$15	+$3	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 26	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 26	$41	+$13	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$17	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 26	$75	+$6	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$76	+$8	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 26	$31	+$4	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 26	$30	+$6	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$10	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$20	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 26	$35	+$6	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$56	+$17	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$5	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$2	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$18	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$54	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$81	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$83	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$25	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records