Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4ab7…5f5e crypto 769 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,321 (-16%) realized −$9,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate79%626W / 170L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -7.1% -15.9% 75% 9% -26.6%
≤30d 142 -7.1% -15.9% 75% 9% -26.6%
≤90d 796 +2.6% -7.1% 79% 29% -18.5%
all 796 +2.6% -7.1% 79% 29% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 29% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 25% -26.3%
15% -24.1% 17% -33.4%
20% -31.6% 12% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$78 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$9,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses626 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)796 / 769
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $0 +$3,173 +1132840%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $91 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.51 · official $29.80 (match) · 3500 history records