Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4A 0x4ab7…155d world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-3%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$1
other 3% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 0% -13.9%
all 6 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 0% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -13.9%
10% -30.9% 0% -22.1%
15% -37.5% 0% -29.6%
20% -43.7% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $454 $454 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $452 $0 +0%
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 19 $455 −$5 -1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $455 1h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $79 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 2d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $452 8d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $452 9d
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 90¢ $438 9d
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 90¢ $12 9d
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 91¢ $455 9d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 15d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 15d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $42 16d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 16d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.10 · official $454.10 (match) · 18 history records