Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4ab6…6099 other 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,156 (+24%) realized +$4,170 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%61W / 104L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$82
14 days−$102
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,158
crypto 12% +$978
weather 7% −$153
sports 1% −$48
politics 1% −$12
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -43.1% -48.5% 25% 25% -33.9%
≤30d 18 -31.0% -37.5% 22% 17% -39.3%
≤90d 54 +6.8% -3.4% 33% 30% +60.5%
all 165 +6.7% -3.5% 37% 30% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 30% +11.1%
10% -12.7% 26% +0.5%
15% -21.1% 19% -9.2%
20% -28.9% 16% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$27 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$4,170
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses61 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage238d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Laso Finance FDV above $3M one day after launch No 42¢ 10¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-77%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $96 −$92 -96%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $121 −$29 -24%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 +$40 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$34 +442%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $16 +$20 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $16 −$12 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $21 +$19 +91%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 27 $23 $0 +1%
Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 -43%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $3 −$3 -93%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $101 −$75 -75%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? May 24 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 7? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 7? May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 12? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $11 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $186 +$215 +116%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $123 +$31 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $78 +$95 +122%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 01 $21 −$7 -35%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $18 +$57 +327%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $20 +$31 +153%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $20 $0 -2%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $30 −$6 -19%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 13 $50 −$42 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $88 −$24 -27%
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $96 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 25¢ $93 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $85 2d
Laso Finance FDV above $3M one day after launch BUY No 42¢ $8 2d
Laso Finance FDV above $3M one day after launch BUY No 42¢ $9 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 13d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Qatar 0¢ $2 13d
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 28d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 28d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 28d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 28d
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.74 · official $4.74 (match) · 542 history records