Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ab6…75b5 weather 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,333 (-10%) realized −$1,328 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%51W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day80.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$11,198
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -55.0% -59.3% 9% 4% -81.4%
≤30d 538 -54.9% -59.2% 9% 4% -86.3%
≤90d 584 -54.3% -58.7% 9% 4% -87.4%
all 584 -54.3% -58.7% 9% 4% -87.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.7% 4% -87.4%
10% ← realistic here -62.6% 4% -88.6%
15% -66.2% 4% -89.7%
20% -69.5% 4% -90.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -121% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -121% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$45 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses51 / 533
Open positions11
Markets (closed)584 / 143
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day80.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 40¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+345%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 25¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 44°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 43°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 46°C or higher on June 29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 45°C on June 29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 28 $9 −$46 -491%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 28 $16 +$129 +804%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 15? Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 28 $30 −$39 -129%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 28 $16 −$37 -235%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or below on May Jun 28 $26 −$35 -134%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 28 $5 −$11 -209%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 28 $15 +$138 +912%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 21 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 6? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 28 $2 −$4 -142%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 22? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 7? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 28 $142 −$67 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 28 $8 −$22 -280%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 28 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 21? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 3? Jun 28 $33 −$60 -182%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 28 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 28 $28 −$50 -180%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma Jun 28 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 5? Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 28 $239 −$239 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.95 · official $22.95 (match) · 3500 history records