Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4ab2…4a42 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-10%) realized −$25 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
sports 13% −$28
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 31 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 48% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 48% -16.1%
10% -16.4% 48% -24.2%
15% -24.4% 45% -31.5%
20% -31.9% 35% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage248d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $100 $0 +0%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $146 −$1 -1%
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Nov 16 $7 +$7 +89%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? Oct 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $2 +$1 +43%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Como win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $2 +$1 +45%
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $2 +$5 +245%
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Klein vs. Rebecki Oct 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $1 +$1 +96%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $2 +$1 +45%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25? Oct 29 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-26? Oct 29 $2 +$4 +223%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-26? Oct 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-26? Oct 29 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Wood vs. Delgado Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Haqparast vs. Salkilld Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20d
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? SELL Yes 89¢ $145 216d
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? BUY Yes 90¢ $146 216d
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims) BUY Sabatini 53¢ $7 225d
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Kopylov 37¢ $6 225d
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Brady 57¢ $12 225d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Weili 44¢ $9 225d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $4 225d
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 242d
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 243d
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 243d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 243d
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 243d
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 243d
Will Como win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 243d
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 243d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 246d
Will Vejle BK win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 246d
Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 246d
Will FK Zenit win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 246d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 246d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 247d
Will Espanyol win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 247d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 247d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 247d
Will Como win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 247d
Klein vs. Rebecki BUY Klein 55¢ $1 247d
Wood vs. Delgado BUY Delgado 59¢ $1 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 49 history records