Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4aac…c78f sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$6,401 (-10%) realized −$6,401 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%49W / 32L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$409est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$541
7 days+$3,936
14 days+$3,936
30 days+$3,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$4,714
crypto 23% −$5,499
politics 8% −$5,314
other 6% −$203
economics 1% −$329
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +21.8% +10.2% 63% 60% +2.3%
≤30d 35 +21.8% +10.2% 63% 60% +2.3%
≤90d 35 +21.8% +10.2% 63% 60% +2.3%
all 81 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 49% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 49% -17.8%
10% -21.9% 38% -25.7%
15% -29.4% 26% -32.8%
20% -36.3% 20% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$773 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$6,401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses49 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$409
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage206d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 30¢ 30¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,429 +$10,207 +121%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$47 -23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $6,318 −$6,254 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5,018 +$169 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,025 −$3,025 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $504 +$154 +31%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 +$327 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $505 +$264 +52%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $843 +$851 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$22 +106%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$288 -57%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $21 +$105 +514%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,231 +$585 +48%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $301 +$44 +14%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $292 +$92 +31%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $193 +$115 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $306 +$694 +226%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $500 +$86 +17%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $56 −$52 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 11 $2,870 −$2,859 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 11 $1,817 −$1,789 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $1,000 −$987 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 11 $400 −$396 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 11 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 07 $2,869 +$294 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $5,299 −$5,299 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $178 +$8 +5%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 08 $500 +$204 +41%
Will West Ham win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $1,307 −$1,253 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 30¢ $46 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $76 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $76 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 30¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $101 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $102 25h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $101 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $151 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $15,821 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $100 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $100 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $100 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $479 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $31 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $8,195 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 63¢ $215 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.53 · official $799.55 (match) · 303 history records