Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4aab…38cc sports 1961 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$651 (-3%) realized −$646 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%1278W / 896L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,459
7 days−$2,107
14 days−$1,597
30 days−$1,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,025
other 22% −$28
weather 8% +$178
crypto 7% +$13
politics 4% +$7
tech 1% +$29
culture 1% +$38
finance 1% −$7
world 1% −$15
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 547 -36.4% -42.5% 32% 28% -49.5%
≤30d 1106 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 47% -18.6%
≤90d 2174 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 53% -14.8%
all 2174 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 53% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 53% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 35% -23.0%
15% -30.6% 23% -30.4%
20% -37.4% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized−$646
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1278 / 896
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions51
Markets (closed)2174 / 1961
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 2174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+22%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 67¢ 99¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+47%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+22%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 71¢ 100¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+41%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 86¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? No 74¢ 72¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? No 68¢ 66¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $16 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 86¢ 79¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 76¢ 100¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+31%)
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 88¢ 93¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 87¢ 90¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? No 87¢ 86¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 81¢ 81¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
UFC Fight Night: John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin (Bantamweight, Preli Jun 17 $14 −$3 -18%
Counter-Strike: WHITEBIRD vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Jun 17 $8 +$3 +43%
Set Handicap: Kartal (-1.5) vs Stearns (+1.5) Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: PLS (-1.5) vs HereWeGoAgain (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Rinderknech Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
T20 Series Hong Kong vs Kuwait: Hong Kong, China vs Kuwait Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs Pakistan Jun 17 $8 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
Cerundolo vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Fukushima United FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Fukushima United FC vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Fukushima United FC vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Merida Open Akron, Qualification: Miriana Tona vs Hanyu Guo Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Kigali 2: Sandro Kopp vs Calvin Hemery Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs home - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs home - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Justice For Tomorrow vs LE-LUX Esports (BO3) - CCT Oce Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: WLGaming Esports vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports (BO2) Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Miami Open: Dalma Galfi vs Maria Sakkari Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BBBMBCBS vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Map Handicap: HS (-1.5) vs AIRLYA (+1.5) Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
CEHL: Olomouc vs. Trinec Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Machac vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Kartal vs Stearns Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Jun 17 $7 −$1 -12%
Miami Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 17 $7 −$1 -14%
Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Vilius Gaubas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Murcia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Javier Barranco Cosano Jun 17 $9 −$3 -34%
Alicante: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Dubrovnik: Mayar Sherif vs Anouk Koevermans Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Sherif vs. Koevermans: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
ATX Open: Taylor Townsend vs Varvara Gracheva Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Four Magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Kaja Juvan vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 17 $7 −$2 -32%
Map Handicap: ex-Zero Tenacity (-1.5) vs Pigeons (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: R2 (-1.5) vs Crashers (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Luana Carolina vs. Melissa Mullins (Women's Bantamwei Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Maxim Mrva vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Chile Open: Matias Soto vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Fukushima United FC vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $20 58m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $14 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 89¢ $19 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 77¢ $6 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $6 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 85¢ $6 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 65¢ $6 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 78¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 68¢ $19 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $15 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 43¢ $14 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $15 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $13 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 74¢ $19 14h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 76¢ $15 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 87¢ $15 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 88¢ $13 30h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 76¢ $19 30h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $13 30h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 80¢ $2 30h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 84¢ $4 31h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 84¢ $16 31h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $13 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $16 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $14 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 79¢ $7 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $13 36h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $8 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.30 · official $1,085.40 (match) · 3500 history records