Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4aa9…ebd8 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 21% +$10
politics 13% +$1
crypto 8% $0
weather 5% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.3%
all 36 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 6% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 6% -7.6%
10% -12.0% 3% -16.4%
15% -20.5% 3% -24.5%
20% -28.3% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.06 per $1 lost it wins $12.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $3 +$9 +260%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? May 07 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $18 $0 -1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $22 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $22 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 7d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 356d
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw SELL No 98¢ $16 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 120 history records