Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa7…eccf other 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%60W / 193L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$166
14 days+$184
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$141
sports 49% +$40
crypto 1% −$5
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +16.8% +5.7% 23% 23% +24.3%
≤30d 253 +2.6% -7.2% 24% 24% +2.2%
≤90d 253 +2.6% -7.2% 24% 24% +2.2%
all 253 +2.6% -7.2% 24% 24% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 24% +2.2%
10% -16.1% 24% -7.5%
15% -24.2% 23% -16.5%
20% -31.6% 22% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses60 / 193
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 274
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $30 $21 −$8 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 24 $71 +$24 +34%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$30 +147%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$5 -32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$18 +900%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$2 -21%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$45 +874%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (- Jun 21 $3 +$20 +650%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 +$15 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$23 +115%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$17 +669%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$20 +198%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$25 +162%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexi BUY 22¢ $10 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 35¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24 BUY 34¢ $10 1h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 28¢ $10 23h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) BUY 17¢ $5 23h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Portugal w BUY 29¢ $8 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 23h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $31 25h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 10¢ $2 36h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $8 36h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 36h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $9 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $2 38h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win o BUY 12¢ $5 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 22¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.45 · official $56.45 · 426 history records