Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4aa7…736e sports 410 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,756 (-8%) realized −$3,027 · open +$271
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%182W / 221L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$341
14 days−$364
30 days−$3,490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$2,173
politics 25% +$289
other 21% −$1,193
crypto 4% −$130
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -38.4% -44.3% 31% 28% -26.9%
≤30d 403 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 40% -21.6%
≤90d 403 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 40% -21.6%
all 403 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 40% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 40% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 30% -29.1%
15% -37.0% 22% -35.9%
20% -43.1% 16% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$4,332
Realized−$3,027
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses182 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions3
Markets (closed)403 / 410
History coverage32d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 83¢ 91¢ $2,519 $2,746 +$227 (+9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1,433 $1,474 +$41 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 63¢ 65¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +62%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $34 −$6 -18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $14 −$12 -83%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 −$9 -15%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $27 −$7 -26%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $22 +$4 +20%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $18 +$12 +66%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $39 −$34 -87%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$8 -19%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -23%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $19 −$14 -74%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $37 −$7 -19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $34 −$9 -27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $80 −$8 -11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 −$15 -29%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $62 +$19 +30%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: Team Solid vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $76 +$24 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $21 +$18 +88%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $302 +$98 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $95 +$16 +17%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$2 +9%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? A BUY 52¢ $25 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $28 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $55 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $55 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $102 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Hait BUY 2¢ $5 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 70¢ $28 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $2 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 31¢ $7 6h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 63¢ $12 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $51 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $34 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $14 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $20 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 55¢ $23 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 78¢ $20 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $27 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 7h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $15 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,331.66 · official $4,356.92 (match) · 1396 history records