Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa4…b617 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$3
other 32% −$1
politics 17% −$1
culture 6% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 8% -8.6%
all 33 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage268d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $79 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $7 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 14 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Oct 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $33 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $33 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $43 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $41 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $26 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $12 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 20d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 21d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records