Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa1…3a7e crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%92W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$104
14 days−$132
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$129
other 6% −$1
culture 1% −$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 34% -19.0%
≤30d 212 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 35% -19.9%
≤90d 212 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 35% -19.9%
all 212 -33.0% -39.4% 43% 35% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 35% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 21% -27.6%
15% -50.5% 15% -34.6%
20% -55.3% 11% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses92 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)212 / 218
History coverage29d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$16 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$19 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $29 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.61 · official $20.61 (match) · 633 history records