Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4aa0…784b
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$2 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% $0
other 41% $0
tech 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% -5.8%
≤30d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% -5.8%
≤90d 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% -5.8%
all 6 +16.0% +5.0% 83% 67% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 67% -5.8%
10% -5.1% 50% -14.8%
15% -14.3% 33% -23.0%
20% -22.7% 33% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.88 · official $18.88 (match) · 18 history records