Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a9e…0dfc other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,396 (-31%) realized −$1,368 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,325
other 5% −$112
weather 0% −$16
crypto 0% −$11
world 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 17% 17% -80.6%
≤30d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 17% 17% -80.6%
≤90d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 17% 17% -80.6%
all 29 -26.9% -33.9% 17% 17% -80.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 17% -80.6%
10% -40.2% 17% -82.5%
15% -46.0% 17% -84.2%
20% -51.3% 17% -85.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$67 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,632
Realized−$1,368
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 24
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions7
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 40¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $194 $200 +$6 (+3%)
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1,032 −$1,016 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $239 −$226 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 −$3 -6%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $50 +$61 +122%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$53 +525%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$41 +203%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 +$62 +596%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 19m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 21m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 24m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 1h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 7h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $185 7h
France vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $7 11h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 11h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $475 12h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 15h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $3 15h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 15h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $22 15h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 18h
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 19h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1,032 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 33h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 34h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 34h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 34h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 34h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $224 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 34h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,631.65 · official $2,631.68 (match) · 74 history records