Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a9e…cff7 crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%295W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$12
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$55
politics 5% −$34
finance 3% −$18
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 303 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 303 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 303 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses295 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)303 / 311
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? No 98¢ 94¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 23m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $14 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 97¢ $15 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.85 · official $158.85 (match) · 620 history records