Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a9b…0cc4 weather 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-15%) realized −$113 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$253
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 11% -37.7%
≤30d 36 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 11% -37.7%
≤90d 36 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 11% -37.7%
all 36 -39.3% -45.1% 19% 11% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 11% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -50.3% 11% -43.7%
15% -55.1% 8% -49.1%
20% -59.5% 6% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$627
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Open positions34
Markets (closed)36 / 70
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? No 56¢ 56¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? No 60¢ 61¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? No 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? No 59¢ 60¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 61¢ 61¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? No 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? No 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? No 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? No 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? No 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? No 60¢ 59¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 64¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? No 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? No 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? No 60¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? No 60¢ 62¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 19? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 17 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $14 −$6 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $26 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$17 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$27 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 5m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $25 30m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $31 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $31 32m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $31 33m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $31 33m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $20 40m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $20 41m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $20 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $31 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 47m
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.74 · official $626.83 (match) · 108 history records