Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a99…b00b world 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%44W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$3
other 26% +$7
sports 17% +$12
politics 11% −$18
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$2
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 78 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 108 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses44 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage522d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$3 +9%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 +$6 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $57 −$2 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $37 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $69 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $3 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2 $0 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $34 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $49 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $21 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $21 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $39 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.46 · official $21.21 (match) · 389 history records