Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4A 0x4a97…3ae1 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$18 (+20%) realized +$19 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+31.9%	+19.3%	100%	33%	+15.8%
≤30d	3	+31.9%	+19.3%	100%	33%	+15.8%
≤90d	3	+31.9%	+19.3%	100%	33%	+15.8%
all	3	+31.9%	+19.3%	100%	33%	+15.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.3%	33%	+15.8%
10%	+7.9%	33%	+4.7%
15%	-2.5%	33%	-5.4%
20%	-12.1%	33%	-14.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	69¢	66¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$38	+$3	+8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$15	+$1	+5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	+$17	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	44m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$41	50m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	92¢	$38	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	95¢	$15	18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$37	40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	42h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.46 · official $14.46 (match) · 8 history records