Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a95…8c70
sports · 132 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$7 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses52 / 72
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)124 / 132
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 8 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$6
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $42 $14 −$29 (-68%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BetBoom Team 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Movistar KOI 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Aurora 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 +$1 +85%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +58%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +104%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $1 +$24 +1833%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 26% +$24
crypto 26% −$12
politics 18% −$29
other 12% +$18
weather 10% −$3
world 5% +$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $1 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 1h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 13¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 21h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 45¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 43¢ $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 44¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 45¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 45¢ $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 45¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +24.9% +13.0% 43% 37% -14.7%
≤30d 124 +23.1% +11.4% 42% 35% -2.9%
≤90d 124 +23.1% +11.4% 42% 35% -2.9%
all 124 +23.1% +11.4% 42% 35% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 35% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.7% 30% -12.2%
15% -9.0% 26% -20.6%
20% -17.9% 22% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.52 · official $25.53 (match) · 480 history records