Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a92…85e5 crypto 467 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%220W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$46
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.8% -22.0% 12% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 263 -11.8% -20.2% 32% 17% -18.4%
≤90d 467 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 38% -10.8%
all 467 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 38% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 38% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 34% -19.3%
15% -25.5% 33% -27.1%
20% -32.8% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses220 / 247
Open positions0
Markets (closed)467 / 467
History coverage57d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 467 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $57 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $56 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $38 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 29 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 29 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1758 history records