Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a88…a1d5 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-11%) realized −$30 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
crypto 31% −$15
sports 30% −$4
weather 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -23.0% -30.4% 26% 26% -18.7%
≤30d 100 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 31% -23.1%
≤90d 100 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 31% -23.1%
all 100 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 31% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -23.1%
10% -27.9% 31% -30.5%
15% -34.9% 29% -37.2%
20% -41.3% 27% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)100 / 116
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 26¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+231%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 9¢ 27¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+200%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 +$6 +550%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Iceland? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Iceland? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Iceland? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i BUY 12¢ $1 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $2 37h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AN BUY 16¢ $1 2d
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.42 (match) · 185 history records