Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a87…fb21 sports 965 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,249 (+3%) realized +$2,177 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%456W / 500L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$630est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,391
other 20% −$1,572
world 6% −$460
crypto 3% −$342
finance 0% −$102
politics 0% +$17
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.0% -15.9% 43% 36% -11.0%
≤30d 65 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 49% -18.9%
≤90d 949 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 45% -15.2%
all 956 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 45% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 45% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 42% -22.9%
15% -31.1% 38% -30.3%
20% -37.9% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$53 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$2,177
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses456 / 500
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$630
Open positions9
Markets (closed)956 / 965
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Vancouver Surge 28¢ 100¢ $27 $98 +$70 (+256%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier G2 Minnesota 61¢ 60¢ $66 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $47 $61 +$14 (+30%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 52¢ 85¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+63%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 71¢ 69¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 24¢ $31 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 44¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner G2 Minnesota 55¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 306 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $71 +$52 +74%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $79 +$66 +84%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $40 +$24 +59%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$7 +56%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 21 $31 −$1 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $131 −$129 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $157 −$154 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $121 +$167 +138%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 −$3 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $624 −$615 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $37 −$3 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $83 −$11 -13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $38 +$9 +23%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $54 +$38 +71%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $34 +$16 +48%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty Jun 07 $127 −$126 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $66 +$38 +57%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $37 −$36 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $25 −$24 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $140 −$137 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $40 +$40 +101%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $11 +$4 +39%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $311 +$195 +63%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $38 −$37 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 06 $20 +$5 +26%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $16 −$16 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $119 −$107 -90%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $23 −$23 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $176 +$264 +150%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $71 +$67 +94%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $39 +$31 +79%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $106 +$54 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $104 −$103 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $61 +$39 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $110 +$129 +118%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $25 +$25 +97%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $89 +$85 +95%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 03 $26 −$26 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $598 −$242 -40%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 01 $39 +$11 +29%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 01 $38 +$31 +82%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $145 −$142 -98%
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Le May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 32m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 34m
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $5 40m
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $6 42m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 54m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 63¢ $11 55m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 63¢ $5 56m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 63¢ $5 56m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 63¢ $1 56m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 35¢ $46 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 59m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 61¢ $5 59m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 55¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 55¢ $1 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 70¢ $1 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $3 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 71¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $31 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 71¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $31 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 89¢ $123 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.31 · official $300.31 (match) · 3500 history records