Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a86…7913 politics 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$25
politics 38% −$23
sports 10% +$9
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 148 -1.8% -11.2% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage134d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $349 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $511 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $303 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $584 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $251 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $272 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $287 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,388 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $242 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $262 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $262 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $249 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $249 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 29d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $207 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $207 32d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $283 32d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $283 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $222 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 33d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 34d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $279 35d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $284 35d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $284 35d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $269 35d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 36d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $229 36d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $229 37d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $295 37d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $295 38d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 38d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $301 39d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $203 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 472 history records