Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a84…4406 crypto 869 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%430W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day126.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$23
14 days−$60
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$10
sports 29% +$53
other 12% +$105
world 3% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -32.2% -38.7% 43% 25% -36.2%
≤30d 867 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 40% -8.9%
≤90d 867 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 40% -8.9%
all 867 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 40% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 34% -17.6%
15% -30.1% 27% -25.6%
20% -37.0% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses430 / 437
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions14
Markets (closed)867 / 869
History coverage21d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day126.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 867 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson Luca Van Assche 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 66¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+43%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 78¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Arthur Fils 81¢ 50¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-39%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 53¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 28¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 12¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions KT Wiz 53¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Jun 15 $12 −$5 -39%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-05-25? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$3 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 12¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 4h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.41 · official $125.41 (match) · 3500 history records