Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a83…6212 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% −$17
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% −$22
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 14 -26.2% -33.3% 57% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 7% -11.8%
10% -39.6% 0% -20.3%
15% -45.5% 0% -28.0%
20% -50.8% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage611d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 13? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 17? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 28? Mar 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Feb 09 $20 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jan 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $651 $0 +0%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 11 $11 −$8 -76%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Nov 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 4 Nov 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump and Harris agree to Fox News debate? Oct 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $724 −$6 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 91d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 109d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 126d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 137d
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 175d
Spurs vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 59¢ $9 509d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 511d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $3 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $15 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $15 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $5 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $3 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $14 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $35 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $13 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $186 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY No $304 556d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $304 557d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY No $293 557d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY No $11 557d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 569d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.98 · official $16.98 (match) · 55 history records