Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a83…1160 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-4%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate70%64W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$140
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$79
sports 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -9.3% -18.0% 68% 6% -23.1%
≤30d 92 +1.3% -8.3% 70% 11% -16.3%
≤90d 92 +1.3% -8.3% 70% 11% -16.3%
all 92 +1.3% -8.3% 70% 11% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 11% -16.3%
10% -17.1% 5% -24.3%
15% -25.1% 5% -31.6%
20% -32.4% 4% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses64 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $23 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $31 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $36 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $29 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records