Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a7f…3797 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$87
other 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 5% -11.9%
≤30d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 5% -11.9%
≤90d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 5% -11.9%
all 21 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 5% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -11.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $380 −$42 -11%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $86 −$1 -1%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $250 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $185 −$8 -5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $36 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $295 $0 -0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $265 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $45 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $79 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $133 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $285 −$9 -3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $120 +$5 +4%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $185 −$8 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$10 -4%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $205 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $212 −$1 -0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 14 $180 −$8 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $338 44m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $380 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL No 94¢ $85 2h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $86 3h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 48¢ $173 11h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $15 11h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $4 12h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $3 12h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $1 12h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $45 12h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 36¢ $177 12h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $250 15h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 37¢ $185 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 42¢ $33 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $295 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $295 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $265 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $33 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $6 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $141 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $28 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $2 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $4 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $2 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records