Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4A 0x4a7d…695f crypto 1086 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$759 (+2%) realized +$766 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%561W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$206
crypto 13% −$246
other 11% −$93
politics 0% +$9
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -26.8% -33.8% 0% 0% -33.8%
≤30d 116 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 42% -16.5%
≤90d 1067 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 52% -9.9%
all 1067 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 52% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 52% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 38% -26.4%
20% -35.9% 34% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized+$766
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses561 / 506
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1067 / 1086
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1067 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 55¢ 60¢ $75 $81 +$6 (+8%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ 60¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 57¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ 56¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ 55¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Athletics 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ 59¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 40¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $25 −$7 -27%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $15 −$10 -72%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 03 $24 −$8 -36%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $51 −$2 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $226 −$14 -6%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $46 −$46 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $86 −$86 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $132 −$132 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $254 −$254 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 03 $41 −$2 -5%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $25 +$9 +37%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $269 −$265 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $36 +$8 +24%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $52 −$51 -99%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 02 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 −$1 -12%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 02 $25 −$2 -6%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 −$1 -7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $25 +$1 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $25 −$2 -8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 01 $106 −$49 -47%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $61 −$13 -21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $86 −$9 -11%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $41 +$29 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $10 +$24 +236%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 31 $41 +$42 +104%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 31 $36 +$15 +41%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $66 +$19 +30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $66 +$28 +43%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $61 +$58 +96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $203 +$233 +114%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $162 +$105 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $61 +$23 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $101 −$12 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $76 41m
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 43¢ $19 42m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $20 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $40 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 47¢ $41 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $41 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $41 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $41 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 60¢ $40 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $41 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $41 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $41 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $41 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $40 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $41 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $41 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $41 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $40 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $41 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $25 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $20 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $4 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $15 19d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $48 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $136 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 36¢ $212 19d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $37 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.47 · official $791.66 (match) · 3500 history records