Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a7d…2978 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 43L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 26% +$9
politics 24% +$1
sports 10% +$3
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.5% -7.3% 25% 12% -7.9%
≤30d 15 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 13% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 13% -9.0%
all 63 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 8% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -8.3%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.99 per $1 lost it wins $5.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage273d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $26 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 31 $9 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $6 $0 -2%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 12 $20 +$3 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Nov 04 $1 $0 -31%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 29h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $26 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $2 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $2 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $52 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $27 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $27 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $25 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records