Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a77…e59d sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+10%) realized +$196 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.2% -38.6% 29% 29% +11.4%
≤30d 7 -32.2% -38.6% 29% 29% +11.4%
≤90d 7 -32.2% -38.6% 29% 29% +11.4%
all 7 -32.2% -38.6% 29% 29% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.6% 29% +11.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 29% +0.7%
15% -49.9% 14% -9.0%
20% -54.8% 14% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×7.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 24¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 36¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $55 +$28 +52%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 94¢ $44 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 72¢ $16 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $14 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 87¢ $25 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $6 28m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 88¢ $20 29m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 73¢ $3 30m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 75¢ $2 30m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $20 31m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $19 33m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 47¢ $40 36m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 47¢ $145 36m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 47¢ $13 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $10 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $5 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $10 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $5 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $9 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 37m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $0 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $0 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $1 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $2 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $10 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $6 38m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $10 39m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 16¢ $10 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.22 (match) · 133 history records